Will the OBR change its housebuilding forecast?

Will the OBR change its housebuilding forecast?

The Spending Review in March contained a housing forecast from the OBR that surprised many. Usually cautious around the impact of government programmes, the OBR was bullish about housing delivery writing:

"From a 12-year low in 2025-26, net additions to the UK housing stock are forecast to reach 305,000 a year by the end of the decade. From 2025-26 to 2029-30, we project around 1.3 million cumulative net additions to the housing stock. Of this, we estimate an additional 170,000 are due to the Government's reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework".

This positive outlook was notwithstanding significant areas of risk that the OBR highlighted around higher housing delivery including capacity within the housebuilding sector to deliver a rapid acceleration and local opposition to reforms that could prevent or delay housebuilding.

Ahead of this year's Budget, the housebuilding industry body, HBF, is reported to have made representations to the OBR in which they have warned of current market conditions and the risks for achieving higher building targets, including higher taxes and levies faced by the housing industry. A key question is whether the OBR revises its housing forecast and, if so, whether there will be any resultant impact on GDP and growth.

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